Analysis of Students’ Flow Patterns from Primary Through Lower Secondary Cycle Under Automatic Promotion Policy in Uganda

This study examines the flow patterns of students from Grade 1 through Grade 7 in primary education, and up to Grade 11 in lower secondary using a tracer approach on a sample of 300 learners from 13 schools. The findings reveal that 72.7% of the learners survived up to Grade 7, while 29.7% survived up to Grade 11, signaling low internal efficiency in schooling. A significant association exists between learners’ completion at grades 7 and 11 as well as conventional socioeconomic characteristics such as parents’ education and learners’ entrance age at Grade 1, among others. Repetitions are mostly observed in grades 2–4, while dropout cases are observed in grades 5–9, respectively. Therefore, mitigation measures are needed to improve cycle completion beyond merely providing access.