Analysis of Student Retention in Primary Education Level Under Mongolia’s Automatic Promotion Policy

Mongolia has implemented free and compulsory education alongside an automatic promotion policy at the primary education level. Analysing the impact of these policies on student retention is essential to evaluate their effectiveness and identify influencing factors. A key concern is the low teacher salaries, supplemented by performance-based bonuses, which may incentivise malpractice. This study utilises a longitudinal approach, employing tracing techniques and univariate analysis on 5 schools and 840 students. The findings reveal that these policies have limited effectiveness, as evidenced by a primary education level retention rate of 62.9%. Additionally, students exhibit high academic performance across all socioeconomic status (SES) groups, which is atypical compared to global trends where low SES groups and schools in rural areas often underperform. This anomaly suggests that the performance-based bonus incentives for teachers may contribute to higher reported academic achievements. The findings suggest that the government must take action to increase the retention rate by increasing internal efficiencies for schools and education as well as reducing indirect costs for primary education. Simultaneously, the incentive structure for teachers requires reassessment. Ensuring fair and adequate teacher compensation is crucial. This will help prevent malpractice and ensure the reported academic performance reflects students’ learning.