Stochastic Faults Model of Integrated Electricity-Gas Energy Systems Based on Epidemic Model

Integrated electricity-gas energy systems can achieve multi-energy coupling and energy cascading. It provides an effective way to improve energy utilization and reduce carbon emissions. However, the coupling between different energy sources brings in higher risk of component faults. To analyze the impact of faults in Integrated electrical-gas energy systems, this paper researches stochastic faults of integrated gas-electric systems based on the epidemic model. Firstly, two different models Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered are introduced. Secondly, the topology structure of power grids and gas networks are analyzed according to the complex network theory. Moreover, the propagation thresholds of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model are given. Then, the stochastic faults propagation models based on the epidemic model are constructed for grids and the gas networks, respectively. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is verified using nodes IEEE39 and 20 in Belgium as examples.