Methodology: A Popperian Analytical Approach

The book’s hypothesis is that political leadership is necessary, though not sufficient, for successful agricultural transformation. This chapter outlines our method for testing this hypothesis. We seek to test our hypothesis by using Karl Popper’s (Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. London: Routledge, 1965) methodology of science. Contrary to the usual approach which seeks confirmation, we test the robustness of our hypothesis by seeking to refute it. To do so in an empirically verifiable way, this chapter defines our concept of effective political leadership and our characterization of what constitutes successful agricultural transformation. In this chapter, we build an analytical framework that defines four aspects of effective leadership: vision, commitment, timeframe, and inclusiveness, and we state our definition of a successful agricultural transformation.