This paper investigates consumer expectations in Ukraine, Poland, Czechia, and Hungary from 2017 to February 2023. We discuss the invaded and neighboring economies to ensure a comparative perspective. The study focuses on how expectations’ proprieties change in the post-invasion period. All countries experienced increased inflation rates, post-pandemic recovery, and high energy prices. The war affects them directly (Ukraine) or indirectly (remaining countries). We apply the set of tests to detect brakes in time series and the change of their proprieties. We find similarities in the breakpoints in our sample: one of them is linked to the invasion, and two others to the pandemic. Post-invasion time series presents different proprieties of the expectations like increased means and standard deviation. This study provides the first empirical attempt to asses empirically expectations change during the war.

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Inflation Expectations Change During the Pre-war and War Period: A Comparison of Ukraine and Neighboring Economies

  • Magdalena Szyszko,
  • Aleksandra Rutkowska,
  • Olena Motuzka

摘要

This paper investigates consumer expectations in Ukraine, Poland, Czechia, and Hungary from 2017 to February 2023. We discuss the invaded and neighboring economies to ensure a comparative perspective. The study focuses on how expectations’ proprieties change in the post-invasion period. All countries experienced increased inflation rates, post-pandemic recovery, and high energy prices. The war affects them directly (Ukraine) or indirectly (remaining countries). We apply the set of tests to detect brakes in time series and the change of their proprieties. We find similarities in the breakpoints in our sample: one of them is linked to the invasion, and two others to the pandemic. Post-invasion time series presents different proprieties of the expectations like increased means and standard deviation. This study provides the first empirical attempt to asses empirically expectations change during the war.