SEIRD Mathematical Modeling of Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Ethiopia

Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries, and it is one of the most severe public health problems worldwide. In Ethiopia specifically, there are 68% of the populations at risk living in areas below 2000 meters of altitude with approximately an average of 5 million cases a year. In this study, a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) mathematical modeling and its four extensions with two scenarios will be used for modeling the malaria transmission with monthly malaria cases along with death rates obtained from World Health Organization (WHO) reports as an initial value. We applied these models with and without intervention scenarios to see the malaria disease transmission dynamics. In this mathematical malaria transmission modeling, we have learned that the disease continues to be the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the region unless strict intervention and control mechanisms are taken with increased efforts. In addition, we found that basic reproduction number (R0) is greater than one, and it showed that malaria will continue as a public health problem and requires a tangible improvement in the eradication of the epidemic.