The Economics of Singularities and Civilizations-Ending Catastrophes

Before going into the discussions of the five singularities driven by science, this chapter introduces the basics of how economists have understood big catastrophes. The chapter begins with the concept of a singularity and a bifurcation point defined by mathematics, a catastrophe model developed by biological/ecological science, and a chaos theory developed in weather science. In applied sciences, a tipping point is commonly used. Economics integrates these science concepts into the economic model of civilizations-ending catastrophes. In designing a public policy against a truly catastrophic event, a precautionary principle based on the dismal theorem is put forth. The rationale for such a policy is the large irreducible uncertainty which is represented in the economic model as a fat-tail probability distribution. On the other hand, a behavioral critique puts forward the argument that people’s and society’s adaptation capabilities and capacities including technological possibilities are substantial, rendering the conclusion of the dismal theorem invalid.