How to Analyze Coaching: This is the WAE

This paper presents a new statistic, wins above expected (WAE), for analyzing coaching in professional sports. The WAE is the first statistic of its kind, as far as we are aware. Calculating the WAE requires estimating a team’s expected success under average coaching ability, and then calculating the difference between the team’s actual success. The method is presented in general and then applied to the National Basketball Association (NBA) as a use case. Among other uses, the WAE can inform equitable hiring decisions and award choices for superior coaching performances, independent of player talent on a team.