Sweaty, but Not Hot: Gamers’ “Cool” Hands

This research paper investigates the existence of the Hot Hand phenomenon by leveraging a unique dataset, which implicitly addresses many of the issues prevalent in the existing literature. In this study, two definitions of the Hot Hand phenomenon, streakiness, and clustering of successes, are presented and tested jointly and at the individual level. Streakiness is measured using conditional probabilities, and clustering of successes is measured using entropy of inter-event times. Monte Carlo permutation tests are subsequently used to determine the presence of the hot hand. Since individual-level testing leads to simultaneous inference, the family-wise error rate is controlled, and a false discovery rate is set. Neither simultaneous nor joint testing found any evidence for the existence of the Hot Hand at 5%. The results suggest that while the players of KovaaK’s aim trainer may be sweaty, their hands do not get hot.