The Horizon Bias

Our capacity to engage with civilizational problems is handicapped by the horizon bias. This psychological tendency leads us to systematically underestimate the challenge of solving civilizational problems with technology. Indeed, it is both easy and exciting to imagine technological solutions appearing out of nowhere. When we declare metaphorical war on a problem like cancer or climate change, the implicit hope is that a deus ex machina will arrive to deliver victory just in the nick of time. Though we know we should not bet the farm on such expectations, it is all too tempting to envision solutions that would make problems like climate change, pandemics, and cancer just go away.