Informal Settlements Under the Impact of Climate Change and the Community Health Factor in Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 on climate action greatly relates with urban health. The focus of this chapter is to consider community health in the context of climate change regarding those living in precarious housing conditions in the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality. The chapter used two gridded datasets, the Climate Hazards Group IntraRed Precipitation with station rainfall data (CHRIPS) and the AgERA5 reanalysis data product spanning 1990–2022. Trend results were based on the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology and Indices Expert Team on Climate Change Detection (ET-SCI). Indices describing warm spells and heavy rainfall events were calculated using the ClimPact software. Results showed that consecutive three-day warm spell events increased over the study period, with rate increases of 0.26 days/year in Mangaung Metropolitan. Heavy rainfall days (>10 mm) increased with rates of 0.12 days/year and 0.07 days/year in Bloemfontein and Botshabelo, respectively. Overall, the Mangaung Metropolitan experienced an increase in three consecutive warm spell days (WSDI3), with rate increases of 0.26 days/year from 1990–2022. Similarly, an increased trend was evident for heavy rainfall days (r10 mm) in the Mangaung Metropolitan. No increasing or decreasing rate was evident over the study period. The study emphasises the need for further analysis of these extreme climatic events with a focus on community health in formal and informal settlements under projected increases of these events in the Mangaung Metropolitan.