Future Nexus Between Climate Change and Terrorism: Will Environmental Issues Influence Radicalization Regardless of Ideology?

Climate change-driven environmental changes and disasters will have secondary consequences on human systems, including inducing migration, straining public health, disrupting economies, challenging governmental institutions, and exacerbating the unequal distribution and access to natural resources. These issues are likely to further impact security, including the risk of terrorism, which has yet to be fully recognized at the global policymaking level. The objective of this study is to analyze the potential future connection between climate change and terrorism by assessing the strength and likelihood of climate change-related issues influencing the rate of radicalization. Relying on a foresight method, a real-time Delphi survey that allows to engage experts in discussion and gather their assessments, the research seeks to determine whether different ideological types of terrorist groups may be affected by climate change differently. To this end, three types of terrorist groups were categorized based on their ideological leanings: ethno-nationalist terrorism, religious-oriented terrorism, and “extreme wing” terrorism. Consistent with findings from the literature review, the study confirms the anticipated threat-multiplier effect of climate change, revealing that its secondary effects are highly likely to increase radicalization. While the overall influence of climate change on radicalization does not vary significantly across the three types of terrorism examined, different issues may impact radicalization within each type of terrorism in various ways, either by heightening social vulnerability or by reinforcing terrorist narratives. Recognizing climate change as a significant threat multiplier for radicalization is crucial, as it can simultaneously trigger multiple risk factors. It is essential to acknowledge climate change as a security risk and incorporate risk mitigation measures into relevant policies.