This chapter analyzes a core component of what is defined in this volume as Permacrisis, namely, the pattern of asset price dynamics as a sequence of “bull markets” and “bear markets.” Based on this analysis, a new concept for stabilizing the “long swings” of asset prices is elaborated, namely, replacing continuous asset trading with electronic auctions. First, I sketch the channels through which the “overshooting” of exchange rates, commodities prices, and stock prices but also of EU carbon prices dampens the real economy and hampers fighting global heating. Second, a theoretical alternative to the still dominating “efficient market hypothesis” is presented, the “bull-bear-hypothesis.” Third, I discuss the role of “technical” or “algorithmic” trading strategies in exploiting short-term asset price trends and strengthening them at the same time. Fourth, it is shown that bulls (bear) markets result from (very) short-term trends (“runs”) in line with the prevailing (bullish or bearish) market sentiment lasting longer than counter-movements. Fifth, to mitigate the extent of the “long swings” of asset prices one needs to restrict (super) fast speculation unrelated to market fundamentals, thereby dampening the short-term trending of asset prices. Instead of implementing a financial transactions tax, one could achieve this objective also by replacing continuous trading with electronic auctions, for example, every 3 h. This approach is theoretically more appealing, technically easy to implement, and has so far not seriously been discussed.

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Stabilizing Asset Prices Through Transition from Continuous Trading to Electronic Auctions

  • Stephan Schulmeister

摘要

This chapter analyzes a core component of what is defined in this volume as Permacrisis, namely, the pattern of asset price dynamics as a sequence of “bull markets” and “bear markets.” Based on this analysis, a new concept for stabilizing the “long swings” of asset prices is elaborated, namely, replacing continuous asset trading with electronic auctions. First, I sketch the channels through which the “overshooting” of exchange rates, commodities prices, and stock prices but also of EU carbon prices dampens the real economy and hampers fighting global heating. Second, a theoretical alternative to the still dominating “efficient market hypothesis” is presented, the “bull-bear-hypothesis.” Third, I discuss the role of “technical” or “algorithmic” trading strategies in exploiting short-term asset price trends and strengthening them at the same time. Fourth, it is shown that bulls (bear) markets result from (very) short-term trends (“runs”) in line with the prevailing (bullish or bearish) market sentiment lasting longer than counter-movements. Fifth, to mitigate the extent of the “long swings” of asset prices one needs to restrict (super) fast speculation unrelated to market fundamentals, thereby dampening the short-term trending of asset prices. Instead of implementing a financial transactions tax, one could achieve this objective also by replacing continuous trading with electronic auctions, for example, every 3 h. This approach is theoretically more appealing, technically easy to implement, and has so far not seriously been discussed.