Model of the Mine Fund Structure Formation Given the Demand for Coal Products

The subject of the study is the directions and volumes of supply of coal products to the economy to ensure the country's energy balance. The purpose of the article is to develop a mathematical model of the structure of the mine fund to ensure the forecasted economically feasible volumes of production of finished coal products in Ukraine, as well as their imports, while guaranteeing the energy security of the state in terms of supplying the necessary types of coal products to ensure the country's energy balance. Research methods: linear programming to develop a model for the formation of the structure of the mine fund, comparative analysis to formulate forecasts of coal fuel consumption, expert assessments to form an information base. A model for the formation of the structure of the country's mine fund based on multifactorial estimates of the generalized utility of coal mining enterprises has been developed, which takes into account the limitations of low-carbon scenarios for the development of the energy sector and differs from the known ones by simultaneously using indicators of the prospects of mines, as well as the volume of economic demand for coal products. The model is used as an integral part of the system of mathematical models for the transformation of the coal industry to study options for the functioning of the coal industry in the process of developing programs for its long-term development. In forming the structure of the mine fund using the developed model, the forecasts of electricity production at thermal power plants (TPPs) and consumption of coal products by the economy of Ukraine up to 2040 were used. The article calculates the forecast structure of the mine fund to ensure electricity production at thermal power plants (TPPs) and supply the economy with coal products until 2040. The calculations show that coal production volumes ensure the operation of thermal power plants, but will not provide the country's economy with high-quality coal products. Therefore, it will be necessary to import coal in 2025–2040.