Prospects for Coal-Fired Power Plants Fuel Supply in Ukraine

The subject of the study is the current state and prospects of coal fuel supply to TPPs and CHPPs in Ukraine, as well as forecast scenarios for the development of the coal industry in the longer term. The purpose of the article is to study the existing opportunities, alternative directions and prospects for the supply of domestic thermal coal to TPPs and CHPPs until 2040, taking into account the occupation and destruction of some coal mining enterprises as a result of large-scale military operations. The article emphasizes that Ukraine will need sources of energy production from fossil fuels for 10–20 years to ensure power regulation. As a result of the Russian aggression, the country lost 24.4% of its industrial steam coal reserves, and steam coal production at state-owned enterprises decreased by 2.6 times. The annual demand of TPPs and CHPPs that are not part of DTEK Energy is more than three times higher than the supply from state mines, forcing power plants to look for additional sources of supply. Private mines remain the main reserve of fuel supply. Coal from these mines is consumed in mixtures with higher-quality coal products from enrichment plants. The prospective mines will be able to provide a total annual production of 24.7 million tons of raw coal, which meets the demand for thermal coal. The calculation of the forecasted volumes of production of coal products for the energy sector in the model of technological re-equipment and forecasting of the coal industry allowed us to assert that the maximum output—19.0–19.6 million tons—will be achieved in 2030 under the baseline scenario of the coal industry development and 17.4–17.8 million tons in 2025 under the pessimistic scenario. Research methods: methods of comparative analysis and expert assessments for the formation of options for the structure of coal fuel and the creation of information bases.