Methodological Approaches for Forecasting Fuel Consumption by Budgetary Sphere in Ukraine

The budgetary sphere of Ukraine’s economy needs sustainable development and a reliable supply of fuel resources to cover the need for heating, hot water supply, and transport. The budgetary sphere includes the KVED-2010 sections “O State administration and defense; compulsatory social insurance”, “P Education”, “Q Health care and social work activities” as well as less energy-consuming: “M Professional, scientific and technical activities”, “N Administrative and support service activities “ and “S Other services activities”. The paper aims to improve the methodological approach to forecasting fuel consumption with the determination of the features of fuel consumption in the budgetary sphere of the national economy, and the distribution of fuels by their applications, taking into account technological energy-saving measures and structural changes. The methodical approaches to forecast fuel consumption by the budget sphere as well as to the handling of initial statistical information, determination of energy efficiency indicators, and energy saving potentials are presented. For wartime, it is still impossible to determine fuel demand, so it is estimated for peacetime. After the war ends and accessing statistical data for the war period, it will be possible to develop forecasts under various scenarios. The study has determined the directions of fuel consumption by types, reducing its consumption, and estimated the energy saving potential by sections of the budgetary sphere of the economy, which will contribute to the reduction of fuel consumption due to both innovative and organizational measures as well as GHG emissions from fuel combustion. Forecasts of coal and natural gas consumption for sections of the budgetary sphere of Ukraine until 2040 were made under the baseline scenario, which takes into account structural and technological changes in the national economy.