Trust and Funding Science by Lottery

Commentators have recently proposed novel modifications of traditional peer review as a method of evaluating grant proposals. One that has gained increased attention is introducing lotteries, or elements of random chance, into funding allocation methods. The primary arguments for the use of lotteries concerns its purported cost efficiency, openness to innovative research, and ability to minimize the marginalization of particular groups through traditional peer review. Considerations of trust are nearly entirely absent from the discussion, although they are extremely important when considering practical implementations. The purpose of this paper is to outline a series of plausible hypotheses about how lotteries may impact the trust of various publics and scientists that could be subjected to tests. This provides the beginnings of a research program for analyzing the relationship between lotteries in science funding policy and trust.