Estimation of Under-Reported COVID19 Cases with Susceptible-Infected-Removed Epidemiological Model via Stochastic Frontier Analysis

As the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved, it has become increasingly evident that the actual number of cases has likely been underestimated. In this study, we review an econometric method to estimate the true scale of COVID-19 cases for 40 countries spanning from January 1, 2020, to November 3, 2020. The method centers around the ‘structural’ model, which is an expansion of the SIR epidemiological model, and is designed to incorporate the notion of underreporting. The findings of our analysis reveal substantial underreporting, aligning with prior research and expert opinions within the field of public health.