Dimensions Related to NCD in Developing Countries During Working Age Using Ridge, Lasso, and Elastic Net Regressions

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) represent a significant burden for developing countries, affecting their annual GDP by 4% (PAHO, Pan American Health Organization, Leading causes of mortality and disability. Last accessed 06/01/2023. https://www.paho.org/es/enlace/causas-principales-mortalidad-discapacidad , 2022), and multiple factors have been observed to contribute to the occurrence of these diseases, including lack of physical activity, an unhealthy diet, tobacco, and alcohol consumption. Ridge, Lasso, and elastic net, as well as machine learning models, are effective in analyzing health variables and evaluating the impact that these variables have on NCD mortality. Six databases were used from 1990 to 2019 with more than 100 variables, including economic, food, and lifestyle indicators from 14 developing countries in the working population. Various econometric models were compared to obtain more robust results having as a dependent variable the mortality of cardiovascular, chronic respiratory, neoplasm, and diabetes mellitus diseases. It was observed that hours worked and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were the economic indicators that affect most of the NCDs. Certain foods such as processed meat and consumption of seeds, fish, sugary drinks, and fats were found that also impact mortality indicators. Similarly, body mass index, smoking, and alcohol consumption are lifestyle elements that also affect mortality. Government spending was not found to be significant in the reduction of mortality in developing countries.