Volatility in Private Health Services and Supplies in Mexico, 2002–2023

Mexico’s health sector has experienced important changes in recent years due to the structural changes generated by public policies and the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the cost of health services and supplies. A price index of health services and inputs was estimated based on the information published by the INEGI and two volatility models were estimated for the said prices—a stochastic model and a GARCH model—disaggregated by the health spending classification defined by the WHO for the horizon 2000–2023. The results show that starting in 2018 periods of high-price volatility have been identified, which were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and have continued to make access to health more expensive to date. The estimated volatility measures are intended to be an input for actuarial economic studies on out-of-pocket spending as well as financial health coverage in Mexico.