Financial Stability Model for Assessment of Non-fulfillment Risk of Financial Obligations

The possibility of applicability of models developed for assessing the risk of non-fulfillment of financial obligations by Russian companies is considered. The applicability of the three-step methodology in logit and probit models for assessing the risk of non-fulfillment of financial obligations of companies under bonds, as well as the logit model, including Boolean variables, to assessing the risk of non-fulfillment of financial claims of creditors by companies is investigated. A comparative analysis was carried out and the applicability of other well-known models for analyzing the financial stability of a company to assessing this risk was investigated. The method of statistical hypotheses was used as the main research tool. Criteria for assessing the effectiveness of modeling the risk of non-fulfillment of financial claims of creditors by companies using the mathematical models under study have been developed. An analysis of the effectiveness of using the mathematical models under consideration has been carried out. Interval estimates of the company's financial stability are calculated, which make it possible to increase the efficiency of modeling the risk under study using the analyzed mathematical models.