Modeling the Development of the Russian Industrial Equipment Wholesale Market

This contribution provides a comprehensive economic and statistical analysis of the wholesale trade market for industrial equipment in the Samara region and the Russian Federation. A list of statistical indicators that serve as the basis for analysis has been determined. The possibility of applicability of economic and statistical methods is considered to assess economic indicators of the market, such as: statistical grouping, correlation and regression analysis, method of nonparametric statistics Pattern, methods of analysis and modeling of time series, tabular and graphical ones. An analysis of the dynamics of wholesale trade turnover in Russia and the Samara region was carried out. When studying dynamics using the method of comparative analysis, relative values were used – lead coefficients, which can be calculated from any type of data. The forecast of wholesale trade turnover indicators has been completed. To model time series, the methodology of ARMA models (p; q) and trend models were used. The study showed that for the Russian Federation the most adequate model is with residuals MA, for the Samara region – a model with a parabolic trend. Mathematically expressed trends show that both territories have exhausted the possibilities for increasing imports of machinery and equipment, and external shocks are beginning to play a role. Based on this, the share of imports will decrease, and in the Samara region at a faster pace than in the country as a whole.