Modeling of the Information Security Risk of a Transport and Logistics Center Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

The paper is devoted to information security (IS) risk modeling of the Transport and Logistics Center (TLC). The proposed hierarchical multifactorial model for determining the level of IS risk of TLC presented as a function of six linguistic factors (variables): assets value, probability of threat realization due to given vulnerabilities, damage from the threat, information resources control, IS system creation and operation (management) costs, information security culture. It is based on the joint use of methods of fuzzy logic and fuzzy ANR. Two specific algorithms for multi-criteria analysis, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Saaty Hierarchy Analysis Method, as well as two Fuzzy AHP algorithms, the Extent Analysis by Chang and Fuzzy Buckley’s AHP, are utilized to establish the priority of factors in a model used to determine the level of information security risk for a transport and logistics center. On the basis of the conducted research, it was concluded that Fuzzy AHP enables a more complete, accurate, and understandable analysis for decision-makers in determining the risk of IS of TLC.