Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate Pavement Performance in APT Experiments

A problem frequently encountered in pavement design is the uncertainty and variability of certain design parameters. Empirical safety factors are generally applied to account for the uncertainties involved, but this can lead to significant design errors. This work proposes applying probabilistic design concepts to the design of asphalt pavements. An improved probabilistic design methodology, based on the principles of the French pavement design method, but taking into account the variability of different parameters, like layer thicknesses and moduli and pavement temperatures, is proposed. This approach is then applied to the prediction of the service life of an experimental pavement, tested at the accelerated pavement testing (APT) facility of Université Gustave Eiffel.