Forescasting Model Applied to the Base Unit Cost of Construction in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Mato Grosso is a state that is in constant development due to the expansion of agribusiness, the historical process that involved technological advances in infrastructure, as well as the migration of southerners who had productive knowledge of temporary crops, allowed the state, from the 1970s, become the country’s agricultural frontier. The great growth, combined with urban expansion, leads to greater consumption of materials and new real estate developments, thus requiring greater control over expenses when carrying out future constructions. Therefore, there is a need for studies and monitoring of variables that are closely linked to the development of civil construction in the state. There are few studies related to the CUB (Basic Unit Cost of Civil Construction) variable in the state of Mato Grosso, and conducting research using statistical forecast models for this variable can boost new studies and generate interesting results for the civil construction sector in the state in order to have a greater control of information and guarantee when thinking about building a property for the general public, and also for the generation of public policies linked to civil construction in the state. From the forecast of the CUB of the state of Mato Grosso, it appears that the same will follow a path of elevation in its values until the year 2026, and this is due to the fact that a good part of the raw material comes from other locations, and there are high costs with this transport logistics.