Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Food Production, Supply Chains, and the Medical Sector

A model for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has been developed, taking into account the inhibition of the infectious process through preventive measures to prevent an epidemic. The created model acknowledges the fact that immunity to the virus decreases over time for some individuals who have had COVID-19, and there is a possibility of reinfection. An approach to studying the interconnections of economic sectors related to the production of food, transportation chains, their delivery, and the medical sphere has been proposed. Research has been conducted on the impact of the pandemic on changes in demand and supply balance in these sectors. Conditions for the emergence of a second wave of the epidemic and the risks of changing the security landscape due to the COVID-19 pandemic are considered. A mathematical model of T-cell immune response has been developed, taking into account the peculiarities of its course in COVID-19, where excessive inflammation and elevated levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines lead to cytokine release syndrome or cytokine storm, causing damage to vital organs and immune system disruptions. The model considers the influence of cellular energetics, especially mitochondria, on the regulation of the immune response and the amplification of inflammation. The problem of optimal control of the immune response to minimize the number of virus-affected cells has been discussed.