Mathematical Modeling of Interconnections Between Ecological, Food, and Economic Dimensions of Security
摘要
A study was conducted on the mechanisms of instability in complex systems. Using a four-sector Lorenz model, research was conducted on the interconnections between food, energy, and water resources, and supply systems. The model unifies sectors of the economy, each described in a consistent manner in terms of productivity levels, employment, and structural disruptions. Investigations were carried out on the impact of energy decarbonization on interconnected sectors of the economy. A mathematical model was developed to determine the conditions under which the growth rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere is minimized while maintaining a specified standard of living for the population. A risk assessment method for food security and its management was created, based on data related to consumption adequacy; differentiation of food costs among social groups; daily energy value of human diets; food availability; supply chain disruptions; reduction in cultivated areas.