Mathematical Methods of Adaptation of Crop Production to Climate Change

This chapter presents new mathematical methods for adaptation of crop production to climate change. We propose a mathematical model for estimating the yield level of agricultural crops under climate change conditions. It allows to estimate the quantiles of the yield distribution function of any agricultural crop and determine which crops are most adapted to new climatic conditions. We considered the task of optimizing the structure of seeded areas taking into account the risk of crop losses. To minimize the risk, instead of the failure probability, which is widely used in reliability theory, it is proposed to optimize the buffer probability of failure (bPOF). Unlike the failure probability, bPOF has more attractive properties: this risk measure is a continuous function that takes into account all the values located in the tail of the crop loss distribution function.