The Return of Power Rivalries and the Future of UN Peace Operations

This final chapter analyzes the differentiated consequences of the resurgence of power rivalries in New York and in the field where operations are deployed and asks the question of the future of UN peace operations in this context. In New York, these rivalries play out at the Security Council, the General Assembly but also the United Nations Secretariat (or the bureaucracy), through the negotiations of resolutions and declarations, budgets, but also around values and norms, as well as in increasingly politicized senior appointments. In field operations, other power games also manifest themselves through troop contributions, the growing assertiveness of host countries, and various “parallel forces.” Despite a certain ability of Security Council members to “compartmentalize” their differences, since 2018 in particular, these rivalries started impacting the course of operations. The June 2023 Malian request for the “withdrawal, without delay” of MINUSMA followed by Russia vetoing the renewal of the Mali sanctions regime in August and the December Security Council decision to terminate the mandate of the mission in Sudan UNITAMS, suggest another stage has been reached in terms of the negative impact of the geopolitical context on UN peace operations. This begs the question of the future of peace operations, in a context of return of power rivalries exacerbated by the growing importance of China at the UN and the China-US rivalry, Russia’s growing influence on the African continent, and the effects of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.