MINUSMA Act Three (2020–2023): The Return of the East-West Divide and the Crisis of Host Country Consent

Act three of MINUSMA is marked by the return to a more classic East-West divide, the result of an exacerbated struggle for power and influence between France, the United States and the UK (the P3) on the one side and the host state governed by a military junta and supported by Russia and the Wagner Group on the other. Rather than in New York, this divide largely played out in the field in Mali this time but with consequences on Security Council dynamics and votes, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. MINUSMA found itself caught between the different positions of members of the Council and a host state whose transitional authorities sought to consolidate their power at all costs. The Mission had little control over these power rivalries but would ultimately itself become a victim of these. After having largely constrained the operations of MINUSMA on the ground, the Malian transition authorities, upset about allegations of human rights abuses and bolstered by Russia’s support, asked on June 16, 2023 for the “withdrawal, without delay” of MINUSMA. This had almost immediate consequences on the peace process. Fighting between the Malian armed forces and rebel groups resumed in August 2023 and a few months later, after having taken the rebel stronghold of Kidal, the Malian transition government declared on January 25, 2024 the end of the 2015 Inter-Malian Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation.