Monte Carlo Simulation in Health Risk Assessment of Sulfur Dioxide Exposure – A Pivotal Factor for Future Air Quality Regulation

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, stemming from industrial processes and fossil fuel combustion, pose significant threats to both the environment and human health. In this study, we aimed to evaluate SO2 levels in Tuzla city’s atmospheric air during 2019 and 2020, and to assess associated health risk. The concentrations ranged from 3.90–147.00 μg/m3 in 2019 and 3.50–1198.80 μg/m3 in 2020, according to monitoring data. The national threshold was exceeded on 34.25% and 21.74% of days in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Conventional deterministic risk assessment indicated that exposure to SO2 did not enhance the hazards to adult or pediatric health. However, applying Monte Carlo simulation revealed that 0.30% of adults, and 6.60% of children were at increased health risk during 2020, despite the mean SO2 concentration was within an acceptable range (41.38 ± 3.55). This study underscores the critical role of meticulous SO2 emission monitoring and subsequent health risk assessments in comprehending, reducing, and preventing potential health hazards linked to air pollution. The integration of Monte Carlo simulation emerges as a proactive strategy for shaping future air quality regulation. By offering nuanced insights into potential health risks, this simulation technique equips policymakers to formulate targeted and effective regulations, enhancing the accuracy of risk assessments and fostering adaptive, science-based strategies to preserve and elevate air quality standards. As we navigate environmental and human health complexities, the integration of Monte Carlo simulation becomes indispensable tool, propelling us towards a future where air quality regulations are not only robust but also tailored to safeguard humans and the ecosystem.