Using the Maximum Entropy Method for Effective Project Management

The areas of application of the maximum entropy method in project management are considered. The development of a methodology for applying the maximum entropy method to assessing the risks of project implementation is proposed; the capabilities and advantages of the method are shown using an example. It is sown how simple calculations can provide to different conclusions. It is proposed to use a combination of the Monte Carlo method and the maximum entropy method with a preliminary analysis of a small volume of expert data using the maximum entropy method, followed by modeling of a small volume of scenarios and parameters selected at the first stage. This approach allows you to build simple procedures for analyzing project risks and obtain reliable results with a small amount of preliminary information. It is shown that the proposed algorithm is not very sensitive to changes in part of the initial data, that is, it allows the use of low-quality expert data to obtain a stable preliminary result.