A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study Using Intelligence Engineering and Strategic Options Analysis Methods

This chapter is a continuation of and from the previous one. Whereas that chapter looked at the topic from a more granular and detailed (micro case study) angle, we now look at a broader contextual approach, addressing a number of early stage strategic identifiers using the PESTLE+ (including Time) framework. This allows a review of cyber issues from a more macro-overview and generalised perspective, using just the basic PESTLE+ to provide more general insights. The chapter also presents the ‘what if?’ analysis work that was conducted following on from the identification of the contextual PESTLE + Time-based Problem Space. Following pair-wise reduction, the Problem Space is reduced to a much smaller set of viable options, forming the Solution Space. The resulting options are then explored, including a description of an ‘anchor’ (or most likely configuration-based) scenario. Alternative outlier/weak signal options, majorly different from the ‘anchor’ can be identified giving the analyst a broader range of possible outcomes—such outcomes having both ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ connotations. Once these viable solutions from a much larger Problem to Solution Space have been compiled, then the translation of such configurations into descriptive narratives is rendered. That work also allows for the use of ‘estimative/probabilistic language’ relating to their likelihood or possibility/probability of occurrence, offering for the further refining of these solutions for the decision-maker and other relevant end-users.