Unravelling Transition Pathways (2): Conceptually Clarifying the Construct of Patterns

Transition pathways are argued to be constructed from a sequence of patterns of underlying processes, while a pattern can be approached as a configuration of events enacted by actors’ agency. Only recently has the concept of event been further elaborated in transition studies. However, how patterns are constructed from particular event sequences has only received limited attention. Patterns play a central role in the multi-pattern approach; nevertheless, due to its complex adaptive systems approach, the generation of patterns from local empirical data is problematic. Therefore, this research takes a socio-technical approach and offers a structured construction of event sequences. Guided by literature on events from the theory on historical processes, the authors applied its theoretical methodology to a case study of the Dutch dairy sector. From the research data, actions were identified, events were constituted, and event sequences were subsequently configurated. From these, patterns were composed of a particular sequence of events within or between the multilevel perspective (MLP) levels. The combination of these patterns provides an indication of the pathway type that is unfolding.