Can Seasonal Climate Forecasts Improve Household Welfare? Insights from Rural Senegal

Despite the potential of climate forecasts to manage climate risks and build resilience, the extent to which they contribute to improving the welfare of rural farm households is still not well-known. We, therefore, ask how far the application of seasonal climate forecasts to production decisions is linked to better livelihood outcomes. In this study, we examine this question empirically by assessing if the uptake of seasonal climate forecasts is associated with, or even leads to, improved rural household welfare using the propensity score matching method. We find no evidence that the application of seasonal climate forecasts to farming activities contributes to enhancing rural household welfare in Senegal. Not only do the findings hold regardless of the welfare indicator chosen, but they are further confirmed when using different matching algorithms. The study suggests that co-production of climate services through a partnership between producers (scientists) and users (farmers) may be an effective way to boost the welfare effects of seasonal climate forecasts.