Econometric Model of Cyclical Functioning of National Economy in the Long-Term Perspective

The contribution investigates methodological foundations for the development of a «conjunctural-structural» macro-econometric model of the cyclical functioning of the country’s national economy. It is argued that, along with various processes that are cyclical in the country’s economy, the country’s economy as a whole at the macro level operates in a cyclical mode. One cycle of functioning consists of stages of development and decline in the rate of development, crisis, decline and stabilization. At the stage of development of the country’s economy, an intra-system economic threat to the state structure does not arise. Intra-system economic threats to the state structure manifest themselves at the stages of declining growth rates of economic development and crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to have tools with the help of which one could determine the time of formation of stages of declining growth rates and the manifestation of a crisis situation in the country’s economy. We believe that by developing a «conjunctural-structural» macro-econometric model of the cyclical functioning of the country’s national economy, it is possible to determine the possible time of onset of economic threats to the state structure and prepare a program for eliminating threats beforehand.