Urban Energy Redevelopment Projects: A Protocol for Economic and Financial Risk Assessment Under Public Incentive Policies

Growing urbanisation and energy efficiency challenges pose the need for innovative strategies to reduce the environmental impact of cities. This study proposes to address this need through the definition of a protocol to assess the financial and economic risk of urban energy redevelopment projects implemented through public incentives (tax breaks or public funding), focusing on the Italian context but with an approach that can be replicated internationally. The methodology is based on a critical analysis of the existing regulatory framework and the synthesis of international best practices. The protocol envisages eleven phases, including the preliminary analysis of the urban context, the identification of interventions, the evaluation of incentive policies, the study of the main criticalities characterising these policies and the analysis of the economic and financial risk in probabilistic terms. In the next phase of risk assessment, objective thresholds of risk tolerability and acceptability are defined using the ALARP principle, originally employed in industrial engineering to estimate the probability of loss of life. The final considerations highlight the importance of a holistic assessment of the risks and economic benefits associated with urban energy efficiency projects to ensure sustainable investments and maximise the results.