Clusters of Conditions for Green Gentrification

Green gentrification suggests that new urban greening projects in deprived neighborhoods can encourage gentrification. Does it mean that deprived neighborhoods without new greening are not or are less prone to gentrification? To examine the role of new greening in deprived neighborhoods, we rely on a novel set-theoretic method, Qualitative Comparative Analysis. This method is suitable to ask and answer under what conditions green gentrification occurs. We analyzed 26 Chicago neighborhoods and compared ones with a new (large or small) park and ones without a new park and their gentrification status between 2010 and 2020. We find that (1) a large new park alone is not necessary to encourage gentrification. (2) Depending on neighborhood conditions (e.g., lack of pre-existing greenness), a small new park can encourage gentrification. (3) When a neighborhood has nearby areas that were gentrified in the previous decade, the neighborhood without a new park was gentrified even with relatively more attention of city government on affordable housing in the community area. We recommend city officials and planners account for neighborhood contexts when considering greenspace provisions to achieve just planning outcomes.