Downward Causation in Complex Systems of Migration. Challenges for Prediction and Intervention

This chapter investigates downward causation in migration, focusing on epistemic challenges connected to prediction and intervention in complex systems of migration. It starts by looking at extreme events such as war, civil unrest, and natural disasters as direct causes of migration, and examines the impact of climate change on human mobility. The chapter presents philosophical criteria for identifying causation in migration processes. It advocates for a probabilistic approach to causality in migration science, emphasizing the identification of difference-making relations. As it criticizes classical models for their ineffectiveness in formulating and analyzing causal assertions, it proposes graphical causal models for studying causal processes in migration patterns. It emphasizes general issues with causal predictions and interventions and examines difficulties in confirming contemporary hypotheses about international migration.