Three Problems in Migration Science: A Complex Systems Approach to the Problems of Evidence, Prediction and Causality

This chapter explores the complexity and uncertainty observed in international migration, analyzing it from the viewpoints of philosophy of science and complex systems science. It examines two types of uncertainty: Epistemic uncertainty, stemming from limited knowledge due to imperfect information, and irreducible uncertainty, arising from the inherent randomness of migration processes. The aim is to differentiate between these uncertainties across three philosophical problems in migration science: Evidence, prediction, and causality. By highlighting the challenges posed by uncertainty, this chapter advocates for a complex systems approach to migration science. It starts by reviewing core epistemological and methodological issues related to the scientific study of human migration. It then explores what is a complex system, what makes a complex systems approach compelling, and conducts a comparative analysis of complex systems and migration systems. Through these discussions, it lays the foundations for a thorough examination of migration phenomena from both philosophical and complex systems perspectives.