Carbon Balance of Forest Ecosystems for Different Climatic Trends

Based on empirical and statistical models, predictive estimates of changes in the carbon balance components for three climate scenarios are given: extreme thermo-arid, cold-humid, and moderate thermo-arid [according to the global forecast models Hadley Centre of Climate Research (HadCM3), version A-2, and Goddard Institute of Space Search (E GISS)]. Corresponding large- and small-scale maps of the corresponding influence of the forest soil and vegetation cover on the carbon exchange of the earth’s surface with the atmosphere are given. It has been established that various forest associations and formations in the south of the boreal belt of the Russian Plain will have both a positive (in accordance with Le Chatelier’s principle) and a negative impact on the state of the continental biosphere in a changing climate. The decisive role of the catenary organization of forest biogeocenoses in the formation of regional carbon balances has been revealed. Based on this, taxonomic (area-weighted) norms of positive and negative regulation of the carbon cycle by boreal and nemoral forests were calculated for the indicated climatic trends. It shows the inconsistency of direct extrapolation (without taking into account the diversity of types of locations in landscape junctions) of the calculated scenarios of the biological cycle and carbon balance, which are obtained by simulating “typical biomes,” to the entire territory of a natural zone/subzone or a large region.