Zonal-Regional Ecological Prognoses

The concept of zonal-regional prognoses for temperate forest ecosystems in light of the forthcoming climate changes is presented. Predictive analysis is based on empirical-statistical modeling ecosystems and on descriptions of their space organization. The boreal bioclimatic ecotone of the Volga River basin is used as an example for carrying out the experience of analytical and cartographic prognostic scenario modeling of the nearest and distant future for a given ecoregion. The quantitative methods of landscape–ecological forecasts have been developed by the author and are described in detail. The mechanisms of the response of zonal-regional forest ecosystems to the anticipated global warming in the twenty-first century have been assessed, according to the global climate prediction model GISS-1993. A progressively increasing thermo-arid bioclimatic trend is predicted, with a general shift of zonal boundaries to the north and with the corresponding changes in the water regime and plant cover structure of the territory.