War and the Military Service in Post-Communist Bloc: Which Impact on Marriage and Divorce?
摘要
Armed conflicts are a disruptive life event and, as such, they have the potential to influence relationship patterns. Nevertheless, the influence of wars on marriage and divorce is understudied. The limited research on this topic focuses on the United States, generally highlighting an adverse effect of armed conflicts on marital bonds. In this study, we focus on former Soviet countries employing the Life in Transition Survey (LITS), a unique longitudinal dataset providing data for individuals in Eastern Europe and Central Asia from 1989 to recent times. Hence, the period during and after the collapse of communist regimes and its numerous ensuing wars. This is a relevant case study since its socio-demographic and cultural context is widely different than the US one. Indeed, conservative family attitudes are believed to have resurfaced after the collapse of the Soviet regimes: have the post-Soviet wars directly fostered these attitudes (hence increasing marriages and decreasing divorces) or have they rather had the same disruptive effect on couples observed by previous literature in other geographical contexts? We test through linear probability models how serving in the army and/or living in a country at war is associated with the probability of getting married or divorcing on the year before, that same year, a year later, two and three years later. Results paint a complex picture: although participating in the army seems, in general, to be positively associated with marrying and staying married, it is less the case when individuals serve in times of conflict than in times of peace.