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Using a Bayesian convolution model, we investigate the impact of government policies regarding social distancing measures in Italy on the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our methodology entails reconstructing case numbers using observed death rates in all Italian regions. Additionally, we analyze mobility data in conjunction with government-imposed closures. Our objective is to discern the efficacy of these interventions in curtailing the spread of the virus, while also delving into the incurred costs of implementing such measures.

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The Efficacy of Social Distancing Measures in Controlling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2: A Retrospective Study in Italy

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Giorgia Bazzurri,
  • Maura Mezzetti,
  • Ilia Negri

摘要

Using a Bayesian convolution model, we investigate the impact of government policies regarding social distancing measures in Italy on the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our methodology entails reconstructing case numbers using observed death rates in all Italian regions. Additionally, we analyze mobility data in conjunction with government-imposed closures. Our objective is to discern the efficacy of these interventions in curtailing the spread of the virus, while also delving into the incurred costs of implementing such measures.