This work presents an application of the Pseudo-Variance Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators (PVQMLE) for estimating Integer-valued Autoregressive (INAR) models. We apply this methodology to two diverse datasets: software download and animal skin lesions datasets. The approach is showed to outperform other quasi-likelihood methods, offering superior goodness-of-fit performance. Additionally, it enables the selection of thinning and innovation distributions within the INAR model framework. By proposing this new estimation technique, we enhance the accuracy and flexibility of modeling integer-valued time series data, thereby facilitating more robust analysis in various fields. This research contributes to advancing statistical methodologies for analyzing discrete-valued time series data, offering valuable insights into complex phenomena represented by such datasets.

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On the Estimation of INAR Models with Pseudo-Variance Quasi-Maximum Likelihood

  • Mirko Armillotta,
  • Paolo Gorgi

摘要

This work presents an application of the Pseudo-Variance Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators (PVQMLE) for estimating Integer-valued Autoregressive (INAR) models. We apply this methodology to two diverse datasets: software download and animal skin lesions datasets. The approach is showed to outperform other quasi-likelihood methods, offering superior goodness-of-fit performance. Additionally, it enables the selection of thinning and innovation distributions within the INAR model framework. By proposing this new estimation technique, we enhance the accuracy and flexibility of modeling integer-valued time series data, thereby facilitating more robust analysis in various fields. This research contributes to advancing statistical methodologies for analyzing discrete-valued time series data, offering valuable insights into complex phenomena represented by such datasets.