In recent years, both political instability and political turbulence have been wide-spread. Much of this research has focused on consequences rather than causes. This paper employs British Data and a retrospective voting model to investigate the causes of political instability in the UK, particularly the link between economic insecurity and anti-incumbency. We find that economic insecurity has a positive relationship with anti-incumbency, which results in unstable government at the aggregate level. This result holds after the inclusion of individual fixed-effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Our results suggest that rising economic insecurity may be an important reason behind the turbulent political climate seen in many developed countries.

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Economic Insecurity and Political Instability in the UK

  • Alessandro Gallo,
  • Anthony Lepinteur,
  • Nicholas Rohde

摘要

In recent years, both political instability and political turbulence have been wide-spread. Much of this research has focused on consequences rather than causes. This paper employs British Data and a retrospective voting model to investigate the causes of political instability in the UK, particularly the link between economic insecurity and anti-incumbency. We find that economic insecurity has a positive relationship with anti-incumbency, which results in unstable government at the aggregate level. This result holds after the inclusion of individual fixed-effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Our results suggest that rising economic insecurity may be an important reason behind the turbulent political climate seen in many developed countries.