A novel hidden semi-Markov model is proposed for toroidal time series. It is a mixture of copula-based toroidal distributions, whose parameters evolve according to a latent semi-Markov chain. A computationally efficient Expectation-Maximization algorithm is described to estimate the parameters and a parametric bootstrap routine is exploited to compute confidence intervals. These methods are illustrated on a time series of wave and wind directions in the Adriatic sea.

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Hidden Semi-markov Models with Copula-Based Emission Distributions for Toroidal Time-Series

  • Francesco Lagona,
  • Marco Mingione

摘要

A novel hidden semi-Markov model is proposed for toroidal time series. It is a mixture of copula-based toroidal distributions, whose parameters evolve according to a latent semi-Markov chain. A computationally efficient Expectation-Maximization algorithm is described to estimate the parameters and a parametric bootstrap routine is exploited to compute confidence intervals. These methods are illustrated on a time series of wave and wind directions in the Adriatic sea.