Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Schools Performance at the National Senior Certificate (Matric) Examination in Western Cape Province, South Africa

The overall level of academic performance among secondary school students at the National Senior Certificate examination (Matric) in Western Cape Province (WCP) are under researched. This study aims to analyse spatial pattern of the distribution of 449 schools in WCP; determine the spatial patterns in schools’ performance in Matric examination from 2018 to 2021; and also determine the relationships between the matric pass rate, population of students (total wrote) and the quintile system of school classification in the province. Data on schools’ locations and overall school performance in Matric exams for the years of 2018–2021 were extracted from the school performance reports published annually by the Department of Basic Education of South Africa (DBE). The spatial distribution of secondary schools was examined using the Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN) analysis. While, clustering of school performance and their determinants were analysed using Local Moran’s I and geographical weighted regression (GWR) respectively. Results indicate a clustered pattern in school location and high performance at Matric in favour of districts South West region of the province. The finding also indicates a general decrease in distribution of schools and in their Matric performance from the districts in South West region to districts in the north and west of the province throughout the study years: 2018–2021. The findings from GWR analyses suggest that the relationship between number progressed and school performance is generally negative. Indicating, that school performance is negatively affected by number progressed. However, the relationship between total wrote and performance was generally positive. The study underpins the need for affirmative programmatic efforts to promote equity in distribution of schools and improvement in schools’ infrastructure so as to improve their rating in province.