Projection of Significant Wave Height in Gulf of Mexico

The projections of the significant wave height (Hs) in the Gulf of Mexico (GM) are presented for the mid-tern (2031–2060) and long-term (2061–2090) with respect to the base period 1976–2005. The ERA5 reanalysis and six Global Climate Models for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios; also, BIAS correction by the delta method, bilinear interpolation and statistical downscaling Hs from a multiple regression model, using wind speed and sea level pressure as predictors were used. The BIAS correction allowed us to reduce the biases of the estimated Hs with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis, presenting correlations greater than 0.95, as well as BIAS and root mean square error (RSME) errors less than 10–3. The statistically significant changes for the 5% are show, both for the mid-term and long-term, on the Mexican East coast, with greater intensity for the RCP8.5 scenario. For its part, the differences between the climate scenarios (RCP8.5-RCP4.5) for the long-term show an increase in Hs on the South coast of the United States.