Combining Convolution and Involution for the Early Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a common disease with high incidence and high risk for the patients’ health when it degrades to its most advanced stages. When detected early, it is possible to slow down the progression of the disease, leading to an increased survival rate and lighter treatment. As a consequence, many prediction models have emerged for the prediction of CKD. However, few of them manage to efficiently predict the onset of the disease months to years prior. In this paper, we propose an artificial neural network combining the strengths of convolution and involution layers in order to predict the degradation of CKD to its later stages, based on a set of 25 common laboratory analyses as well as the age and gender of the patient. Using a dataset from a French medical laboratory containing more than 400 000 patients, we show that our model achieves better performance than state-of-the-art models, with a recall of 83%, F1-score of 76%, and 97% overall accuracy. The proposed method is flexible and easily applicable to other diseases, offering encouraging perspectives in the field of early disease prediction, as well as the use of involution layers for deep learning with time series.